Practice Good Theory

Of his time as a captive around the year 1280, Chinese scholar, Wên T'ien-hsiang, wrote about books: " Alas! the fates were against me; I was without resource.  Bound with fetters, hurried away toward the north, death would have been sweet indeed; but that boon was refused. My dungeon is lighted by the will-o'-the-wisp alone: no breath of spring cheers the murky solitude in which I dwell. The ox and the barb herd together in one stall: the rooster and the phoenix feed together from  one dish. Exposed to mist and dew, I had many times thought to die; and yet, through the seasons of two revolving years, disease hovered around me in vain. The dark, unhealthy soil to me became Paradise itself. For there was that within me which misfortune could not steal away. And so I remained firm, gazing at the white clouds floating over my head, and bearing in my heart a sorrow boundless as the sky. The sun of those dead heroes has long since set,  but their record...

"War prosperity" is an odd, but enduring myth. Wars destroy some men and material; and, they divert others from making "butter" to making "guns". Nevertheless, one hears people say things like: " spending lots of money fighting Hitler, brought the U.S. out of depression " (1) . Here's a brief look at the FIRST world-war. The pro-War case : U.S. production did boom during World War-I. When the war ended in 1918, American production volume was about 25% higher than it had been in 1914. In 1914, the U.S. was a debtor country; by 1918, the positions were reversed: the world  owed money to the U.S. Detailed WW-I timeline: Actually, the U.S. did not enter WW-I in 1914. At first, the U.S. was at peace, while producing and exporting to the warring nations. Only in 1917 did the U.S. declare war. Armistice Day was less than 2 years later, in 1918. Peace prosperity: Consider the top-most black line in this diagram. It is an index of Producti...

What's the long-term return you can expect on your nest egg? Long-term:  Between 20 and 30 years can qualify as "long term" over a human life-span. People typically start careers at lower salaries, move up, and then plateau. A 30-year period could start roughly at 35 and go to 65. Stock-market -- Historical returns:  Crestmont Research has  some great matrix charts  showing the annualized returns of the stock-market, from any given year to any other year, since 1900. For starters, consider the one that looks at the (nominal) S&P 500 index , ignoring inflation, taxes and dividends. Helpfully, there's a black diagonal (left top to right bottom) drawn at the 20-year horizon. As an example, someone putting money into the S&P 500 in 1970 saw an annual return of 7% over 20 years, ending 1990. He saw 10% annual over 30 years, ending 2000. Tax-deferred, with dividends reinvested: A second chart adds in dividends, and assumes the money is in a tax-deferred acc...

This is a Phyrgian cap . I'm surprised I only just learned about its symbolism. It once symbolized freedom. This association comes from Roman times. It was even banned around the French revolution. It might have adorned the statue on top of the U.S. Capitol, except that Jefferson Davis objected. The cap did make it on to the seals of the U.S. Senate and the state of Iowa. It also figures on  the coat of arms of various South American countries. I think its interesting... and cute.