The Mediterranean Maghreb
The Mediterranean Maghreb, along with Egypt and the Levant, has been rocked by the "Arab Spring". Once part of the Roman Empire, North Africa went through a period of Islamic rule, Turkish Imperialism, and European colonialism, followed by independence under mostly dictatorial regimes. The Arab spring marks a new turning point.
"A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new; when an age ends; and when the soul of a nation long suppressed finds utterance." - Nehru
What will "the new" look like in North Africa? Some fear the next phase will be Iranian-style Islamic rule, others are cheering for Democracy. Probably, the next phase will vary across the four countries of the region, ranging between strong authoritarian (possibly Islamic) rule and more liberal democracies that implement a few Islamic rules in family-law and related areas.
Later, with a generation or two, that too may pass. I think it is likely that sometime in this century, at least one North African country -- perhaps Tunisia (once Carthage, land of Hannibal), will follow Turkey, and be linked back into Europe via some political form that extends the EU across the Mediterranean.
Indeed, considering the North-South divisions in Europe, one might go out on a wing of fancy and wonder if perhaps the more enduring political union may be a Mediterranean one: the Roman Empire rising again? A Union that circles the Mediterranean, using a common currency (the Denarii) might work better than the EU. But, enough of fiction.
Here's a map of the four countries, followed by very brief summaries:
Morocco: [You've heard of its largest city: Casablanca.] This constitutional monarchy was fairly dictatorial, but began small moves to liberalism under the current king (since 1999). The Arab Spring protests resulted in a new constitution and more democratic control, but the king still retains primacy.
The largest parliamentary party is moderately Islamic, but it has nowhere near a majority. There are quite a few other parties that are nationalist, monarchist or even liberal.
Algeria: Post-French-colonial governments were socialist, secular and authoritarian. In 1991 an election was held and an Islamic party won, based on their Islamic ideology and their anti-socialist agenda that appealed to traders and businessmen. The military overturned the results; the leaders of the Islamic party were jailed; and, a bloody civil war ensued, with the military and the secular establishment retaining power. Since then, Algeria has seen a slight opening up of the economy, but is still very authoritarian, and reliant on extraction of oil.
The Arab Spring saw uprisings in Algeria, but the government has maintained control. It mostly remains a country run by secular authoritarian government, with a not-so-moderate Islamic party likely if free-elections are ever held.
Tunisia: Like Algeria, the post-colonial government was secular and autocratic. (Veils were banned in government jobs.) Then, a Tunisian street-vendor set himself on fire, sparking the Arab spring.
Unlike Algeria, the the President fled and a new party is in charge. While the historical roots of this party are very Islamic (pro-Iran etc.) the current leadership appears to be moderate. Unlike in Algeria, where the main Islamic party wants Sharia, the Tunisian party rejects Sharia as a basis for law, while saying that the law should be informed by religious/Islamic values. The leader says he sees an Islamic party in the tradition of the various "Christian Democratic" and "Christian Socialist" parties of Europe.
Libya: And Italian colony before WW-II, post-colonial Libya was a monarchy that was fairly secular. After twenty years, the king was overthrown by socialist, nationalist Gaddafi. He declared that Sharia would be the law. He also was the most repressive and brutal of the North African dictators.
The Arab Spring brought civil war to Libya, and Gaddafi's death. The interim constitution says that Sharia is the basis for law. However, despite this, and despite the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, the majority in Libya is not particularly Islamic. The largest political alliance favors democracy and a move toward liberalism.
The future: Morocco is on a path where power continues to move away from the king, to a parliament, and where religion does not play an overwhelming role. Tunisia does not have a monarch, and appears to be further down the path of modernism. With a per capita GDP ($9,300) greater than China, Tunisia has the best prognosis of the four. Algeria is brittle, with its dictatorship likely to crumble some day, with an Islamic party waiting in the wings, and with a history of civil war. Finally, Libya is a mess of rival tribes right now, but the parties are not overwhelmingly religious. It's reliance on oil might entice a new dictatorship; we have to wait for the dust to settle.
"A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new; when an age ends; and when the soul of a nation long suppressed finds utterance." - Nehru
What will "the new" look like in North Africa? Some fear the next phase will be Iranian-style Islamic rule, others are cheering for Democracy. Probably, the next phase will vary across the four countries of the region, ranging between strong authoritarian (possibly Islamic) rule and more liberal democracies that implement a few Islamic rules in family-law and related areas.
Later, with a generation or two, that too may pass. I think it is likely that sometime in this century, at least one North African country -- perhaps Tunisia (once Carthage, land of Hannibal), will follow Turkey, and be linked back into Europe via some political form that extends the EU across the Mediterranean.
Indeed, considering the North-South divisions in Europe, one might go out on a wing of fancy and wonder if perhaps the more enduring political union may be a Mediterranean one: the Roman Empire rising again? A Union that circles the Mediterranean, using a common currency (the Denarii) might work better than the EU. But, enough of fiction.
Here's a map of the four countries, followed by very brief summaries:
Freedom Index 2024: Human, Personal, Economic
Morocco: Okay 5.48, 4.8, 6.42
Algeria: Poor 4.82, 4.82, 4.82
Tunisia: Okay 6.22, 6.36, 6.02
Libya : Poor 4.94, 5.15, 4.65
Egypt : Poor 4.24, 3.36, 5.47
Jordan : Okay 6.32, 5.63, 7.3
Israel : Good 7.43, 7.32, 7.57
Iran : Poor 4.03, 3.67, 4.53
Turkey : Okay 5.63, 5.14, 6.32
Iraq : Poor 4.73, 4.19, 5.49
India : Okay 6.29, 6.06, 6.62
Morocco: [You've heard of its largest city: Casablanca.] This constitutional monarchy was fairly dictatorial, but began small moves to liberalism under the current king (since 1999). The Arab Spring protests resulted in a new constitution and more democratic control, but the king still retains primacy.
The largest parliamentary party is moderately Islamic, but it has nowhere near a majority. There are quite a few other parties that are nationalist, monarchist or even liberal.
Algeria: Post-French-colonial governments were socialist, secular and authoritarian. In 1991 an election was held and an Islamic party won, based on their Islamic ideology and their anti-socialist agenda that appealed to traders and businessmen. The military overturned the results; the leaders of the Islamic party were jailed; and, a bloody civil war ensued, with the military and the secular establishment retaining power. Since then, Algeria has seen a slight opening up of the economy, but is still very authoritarian, and reliant on extraction of oil.
The Arab Spring saw uprisings in Algeria, but the government has maintained control. It mostly remains a country run by secular authoritarian government, with a not-so-moderate Islamic party likely if free-elections are ever held.
Tunisia: Like Algeria, the post-colonial government was secular and autocratic. (Veils were banned in government jobs.) Then, a Tunisian street-vendor set himself on fire, sparking the Arab spring.
Unlike Algeria, the the President fled and a new party is in charge. While the historical roots of this party are very Islamic (pro-Iran etc.) the current leadership appears to be moderate. Unlike in Algeria, where the main Islamic party wants Sharia, the Tunisian party rejects Sharia as a basis for law, while saying that the law should be informed by religious/Islamic values. The leader says he sees an Islamic party in the tradition of the various "Christian Democratic" and "Christian Socialist" parties of Europe.
Libya: And Italian colony before WW-II, post-colonial Libya was a monarchy that was fairly secular. After twenty years, the king was overthrown by socialist, nationalist Gaddafi. He declared that Sharia would be the law. He also was the most repressive and brutal of the North African dictators.
The Arab Spring brought civil war to Libya, and Gaddafi's death. The interim constitution says that Sharia is the basis for law. However, despite this, and despite the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, the majority in Libya is not particularly Islamic. The largest political alliance favors democracy and a move toward liberalism.
The future: Morocco is on a path where power continues to move away from the king, to a parliament, and where religion does not play an overwhelming role. Tunisia does not have a monarch, and appears to be further down the path of modernism. With a per capita GDP ($9,300) greater than China, Tunisia has the best prognosis of the four. Algeria is brittle, with its dictatorship likely to crumble some day, with an Islamic party waiting in the wings, and with a history of civil war. Finally, Libya is a mess of rival tribes right now, but the parties are not overwhelmingly religious. It's reliance on oil might entice a new dictatorship; we have to wait for the dust to settle.
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