Liberals, Moderates and Conservative: Self-reporting
Every year, Gallup conducts a poll where they ask people across the U.S. whether they would call themselves "Liberal", "Moderate" or "Conservative". For the last 5 years, percentages have been fairly stable. Without reading further, can you guess what percentage would call themselves "moderate", and how conservative/liberal would be split?
Here is a link to the latest results.
About 37% say they're moderate, about 39% say they're conservative, and about 22% say they're liberal. Since the country's voters divide about 50:50 when it comes to voting for Republicans and for Democrats, it's safe to conclude that moderates lean democrat. If we were to make some rough assumptions and say that voter turnout is equal among the groups and and that "conservatives" vote GOP and "liberals" vote Dem, then a 50:50 vote result would imply that the 37% who call themselves moderate break down into: 10% moderate but leaning GOP and 27% moderate leaning Dem. Even if there is leeway in the assumptions, I think it is a reasonable guess that people who call themselves moderate are at least twice as likely to vote Democrat than Republican.
Democrats are more mainstream: I think this fits with anecdotal evidence. Viewpoints propounded by the Democratic party more closely reflect the mainstream views taught in schools and colleges and via movies etc. So, very broadly, the stance of the Democratic party is seen as being more moderate than the stance of the GOP. Under this understanding, people who support some of those mainstream views and think of themselves as moderates, also see the Democratic party as being closer to their position.
There are no liberal states! I found it interesting that when one looks at state level data (see page 2 at that link), there is no state of significant size where more people call themselves liberal than conservative. (Mass., Rhode Island and D.C. are the only ones, and there two only D.C. has a clear majority of self-reported "liberals"). Meanwhile, in states like New York and California, self-reported conservatives are more than self-reported liberals (by slim margins).
Just some food for thought -- or perhaps a poll confirming what you already knew!
Here is a link to the latest results.
About 37% say they're moderate, about 39% say they're conservative, and about 22% say they're liberal. Since the country's voters divide about 50:50 when it comes to voting for Republicans and for Democrats, it's safe to conclude that moderates lean democrat. If we were to make some rough assumptions and say that voter turnout is equal among the groups and and that "conservatives" vote GOP and "liberals" vote Dem, then a 50:50 vote result would imply that the 37% who call themselves moderate break down into: 10% moderate but leaning GOP and 27% moderate leaning Dem. Even if there is leeway in the assumptions, I think it is a reasonable guess that people who call themselves moderate are at least twice as likely to vote Democrat than Republican.
Democrats are more mainstream: I think this fits with anecdotal evidence. Viewpoints propounded by the Democratic party more closely reflect the mainstream views taught in schools and colleges and via movies etc. So, very broadly, the stance of the Democratic party is seen as being more moderate than the stance of the GOP. Under this understanding, people who support some of those mainstream views and think of themselves as moderates, also see the Democratic party as being closer to their position.
There are no liberal states! I found it interesting that when one looks at state level data (see page 2 at that link), there is no state of significant size where more people call themselves liberal than conservative. (Mass., Rhode Island and D.C. are the only ones, and there two only D.C. has a clear majority of self-reported "liberals"). Meanwhile, in states like New York and California, self-reported conservatives are more than self-reported liberals (by slim margins).
Just some food for thought -- or perhaps a poll confirming what you already knew!
I wonder if the same sort of split (roughly into thirds) occurred in the years just prior to the American Revolution. An Enlightenment minority could conduct a revolution, but couldn't maintain or expand after that generation had passed.
ReplyDeleteIntriguing thought. Perhaps there's something enduring about the overall pattern. I wonder what a similar poll would look like in the U.K.
ReplyDelete