Here's a chart of world GDP, broken down by country share. ( HT: Carpe Diem ). Careful with the x-axis, it is not at all to scale! The basic idea is that India and China had large shares pre-industrial revolution, after which Europe rose. The U.S. shoots up, to over 40% of world GDP by 1950. Then, Japan begins to grow in the 1960s, and China in the 1980s. Suppose countries end up with GDPs proportionate to their populations. What would that picture look like? I've added a bar to the right, showing the break-down of world-population. Look at the U.S. squished down, with less that 400 million out of a world population of over 7,000 million. The biggest change is in the previously un-noticed 'rest of the world". If Africa, the Middle East and so on moved toward freedom, that could be the story of the century. What if they do not? Here's a chart with a new assumption. Suppose the "rest-of-world" does not increase its relative s...
It is traditional to think of magazines like Playboy as corrupting of morals. Yet, there's no comparison to magazines like the "National Review". The wrong moral and political ideas can cause far more harm than viewing nudes. Even Venezuela's dictator Chavez realized that the "wrong ideas" about life and philosophy can be more "corrupting" than a little nudity . A while back The Simpsons were ordered off the air, to be replaced by Baywatch!
In October I posted some GDP graphs from the excellent Calculated Risk blog. In summary, "Real Personal Income" was still 5% below the pre-recession peak when ignoring "transfer payments". Additionaly, in four years of recession, the population has grown, and the numbers look worse on a per-capita basis. In this post, I switch my focus to unemployment. Unemployment rate has bottomed: Here is a graph ( sharper original on Calculated Risk ), comparing the rise of unemployment (downward in the graph) in past recessions, and how soon the rate recovered to its pre-recession level. Post WW-II, the unemployment rate has never turned so weak nor has it remained weak for so long. Based on historical patterns, it is optimistic to think unemployment will return to its recent pre-recession low (about 5%) any time in the next 2 years. Participation rate falling: One problem with the unemployment rate is that it under-counts dejected workers who have gi...
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